In the heat of the moment: Economic and non-economic drivers of the weather-crime relationship

Abstract

Using daily data on the universe of crimes from 600 police stations in Karnataka, India between 2011 and 2016, and daily weather data from a dense network of monitoring stations, we study the daily and seasonal weather-crime relationship. We analyze a wide variety of crime types, and find that violent crimes respond to both daily and seasonal variation in temperatures and rainfall, whereas property crimes only respond to seasonal variation. The results provide novel evidence for the economic theory of crime, but also for the importance of non-economic drivers of violent crime, including violence against women and ethnically marginalized groups, and inter-group conflict.