Smart predictions via smart-tagging: Introducing a Crisp and powerful revenue forecasting model

Abstract

Predicting market performance before launch is critical and indispensable especially for the category of experience products. The problem becomes even more critical when the bulk of profits for such products hold a short shelf life. Films, tournament merchandise, online courseware, fall in such a category. Taking up the specific case of the Bollywood motion picture industry, the author proposes a smart-tagging mechanism that will enhance predictive power of an efficient revenue forecasting model. The market is considered differentiated both horizontally and vertically. An experiment supports the generalizability of the model to other product categories that may qualify as experience goods, in general; e.g., book, music, restaurant.