Aerospace industry in India: Strategic analysis of its future based on a Delphi study approach

Abstract

The advent of modern aerospace can be traced back to the Wright brothers who made the first powered flight at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina on December 17, 1903. Since then the field of aerospace has seen remarkable growth and development. From the hot-air balloons and gliders to the bombers during the 1st world war to the manned mission to the moon and the new developments in supersonic travel and commercial aviation there has been a tremendous growth in the last century. During the same period, the structure of aerospace industry itself has changed from companies managing the entire set of operations from design to manufacturing on their own to clustered value chains in a few countries consisting of highly integrated yet independent players. However, the last few years have witnessed a trend towards globalization of the aerospace industry in a way somewhat similar to that in the automotive industry, providing new regions and players the opportunity to benefit from the chances and contribute to the problems of this industry. Riding on the back of low cost of labor, India too has recently emerged as a player in the aerospace industry. The growth in India’s manufacturing sector and the rising stock of its R&D capabilities are bound to have repercussions not only in the Indian but also in the international aerospace markets. It is anticipated that India’s MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) segment will grow at 10%, reaching US$ 1.17 Billion by 2010 and US$ 2.6 Billion by 2020. In this context the study aims at creating awareness and fostering interaction between executives of various companies, academics and other interested parties; to not only create an understanding of the state of the aerospace industry in India at present but especially to develop a clearer picture of what the structure of the aerospace industry will be in the future. Through the discussion of various propositions for the future of the aerospace industry in India the study aims to generate various scenarios which will provide a basis for long-term decision making and support companies with their strategic management decisions. A two-stage approach was selected for the study. In the first part of the Delphi survey, experts from the worlds of business, politics, and science were given 18 projections to provide their opinions on from the following subject areas: * Political environment. * Value-chain configuration. * Technological environment. The survey was conducted online with the help of a web-based application which makes real-time evaluation possible. The participants were asked to assess the projections in terms of the probability of occurrence, their impact on the Indian economy, and their desirability using the ratings scale provided. They were also given the opportunity to justify their responses by providing comments. The online tool was made available to the participants until the end of October 2009 so that they could modify their responses by looking at how others had responded and so arrive at a consensus if possible.