carbon emission mitigation in India how much and at what cost?

Abstract

There is a growing consensus among all the countries towards the need to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. However, there is uncertainty that prevails about the specifics of actions, targets and the cost involved. This is hampering a synchronized effort because while things are clear at a global level, there is a lot of confusion from a country/individual government standpoint. Most governments are unable to put a finger on the exact impact, the cost of abatement and hence the benefits of an appropriate environmental policy. Moreover, the most cost effective measures to be taken to mitigate carbon emission are unclear. The study reports such specifics about India so that the need for an integrated policy is identified. The impact on GDP for the BAU case (the case of not doing anything about the environment) and in other scenarios was calculated. It was established the impact on India’s GDP due to climate change will be among the highest in the world. Since India is not the highest contributor of GHG on per capita emissions basis, the report establishes how there is a mismatch of emissions and impact. Thus the highest emitters might not be the ones most affected by global warming. The report establishes that there is no correlation between a country’s contribution to GHG emissions and the future impact of climate change on the country’s economy. A modified version of PAGE2002 model was used to calculate specific details about cost and impact on India by separating it as a focus. Based on the results obtained the percentage GDP loss of India is anywhere between 2.5 -3 times than the global average. This also establishes the need for India to take mitigating actions against the threat of global warming. The discounted impact on India is in the range of 1.5- 3.5 trillion USD (in USD 2000) terms while the cost of abatement for India would range from $490Billions to $560Billions depending on the policy scenarios. Based on this the group recommends the target concentration to be 550 ppm in the year 2100. The options of abatement measures available span across a host of economic sectors like power, transport and infrastructure. Priority must be given to those measures which have negative costs and those which are time-perishable. Such measures have been identified in the report. There is a need to stimulate action through a portfolio of coordinated measures to capture GHG reductions efficiently across industry sectors. India has over the past decade, has laid emphasis on increasing its industrial energy efficiency, promoting energy efficient and renewable energy and accelerating the introduction of clean energy technologies. The way ahead is to pursue a strong coordinated economy wide abatement program to achieve the desired emission levels.