Demand forecasting in Britannia

Abstract

Forecasting demand has become a crucial part in the overall supply chain to make it more efficient. It is important with regard to the supplier, manufacturer or any retailer because it determines the quantity of raw materials to be purchased by the manufacturer, quantity to be stocked, quantity to be ordered by the retailer etc. Also in a supply chain a good amount of time is consumed start from the purchase of raw materials in the upward supply chain to delivery of end products to the consumers. Hence, during the time period the demand often changes at the consumer end which often leads to excessive production or loss of sales due to inaccuracy demand estimation. This accuracy of demand plays an important role in making a supply chain efficient, cost effective and avoiding wastage. Forecasting is done on the basis of demand trend, seasonality etc with various statistical tools. It is also done in various levels like demand at a regional level, at the customer level etc. So accuracy of the forecasting is highly necessary. Britannia Company in Bangalore division is also facing some challenges related to demand forecasting accuracy, capturing seasonality and uncertain demand fluctuations during holidays. So, the main objective of our project is to study the current forecasting techniques and improve it by devising a forecasting model to improve accuracy of forecasting. Also analyse the demand forecasting at various levels and finally come up with the most efficient and cost effective level in which the forecasting needs to be done.