Statewise demand forecasting for HSD/MS sales

Abstract

Petrol and Diesel are essential commodities of the country. The demand of both petrol and diesel depend upon number of economic factors and government policies. It is critical to plan and use resource judiciously. Hence it becomes very important to predict the long-term demand, strategize and allocate resources at right locations across the country. In order to predict the long-term demand, it is essential to identify consumption patterns and other factors driving the fuel growth in the country. Broad National level consumption patterns are available at different sources, but, no clear picture is available at the state level. This study was conducted to predict the demand at state level across the country for next 20 years. The study identified different macroeconomic factors, consumption factors and demographic factors which affect petrol and diesel demand. These factors were analysed to understand factors which affect the demand significantly. These factors were forecasted using historical data and coupled with detailed qualitative research about electric vehicle adoption and state level policies to come up with the state-level demand forecast for petrol and diesel. Based on study, it is observed that overall the petrol demand is expected to grow three-fold by 2038. East Indian states will dive the next generation demand for petrol with Assam, Bihar and Orissa showing the greatest potential. In western region, Gujarat and Maharashtra will continue to grow at high rate. In southern region, Tamilnadu is expected to continue to be leader in petrol demand followed by strong growth in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Karnataka’s petrol demand is expected to stagnate owing to electric vehicle adoption. In North India, Uttar Pradesh has the highest potential with growing two-wheeler demand followed by Haryana and Delhi., Anand