Indian auto-mobility 2020: a perceptive picture

Abstract

India is in a phase of economic transition as well as transport infrastructure development. Mobility in the country is becoming crucial for economic development but at the same time difficult with the rise in average income of Indians. Future shape of mobility needs to be predicted to help aide transportation planning and policy. In this paper the concept of delphi-method is applied to project the relative impact of various influencing factors on the future (2020) of mobility in India. The results of the projection are plotted as perception charts for visual comprehension of mobility indicators and are compared with statistical predictions. As perceived, the three mobility indicators passenger kilometre travelled/capita, vehicle kilometre travelled/capita and motor vehicles/1000 population are found to be very sensitive to fuel costs. Further factors like government policy are found to have a healthy influence over these indicators.