Feasibility of India attaining CO2 emission intensity reduction commitments

Abstract

Climate change is considered one of the most serious threats with likely adverse impacts on human health, food security, water and other natural resources. The international political response to climate change that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reached a quantification level with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. At the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (CoP-15) held at Copenhagen during 7-18December, 2009, a Copenhagen Accord was arrived at. India s official position of not accepting mitigation targets changed substantially during CoP-15 where it agreed that it would endeavour to reduce its green house gases (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP (except from agricultural sector) by 20-25% by 2020 over the 2005 level. The same was informed to UNFCCC in January 2010.The focus of mitigation efforts in India essentially revolves around energy choices as energy is the largest contributor, with around two-thirds of India s GHG emissions. In this backdrop, this dissertation attempts to examine the implications of achieving the aforestated GHG emission intensity reduction target. Towards this end, the primary commercial energy consumption patterns from 1982 onwards were analysed. The contribution of the changing energy-mix, energy intensity and per capita income in overall emissions has been examined using the Divisia decomposition analysis. Further, correlation and regression analysis for examining the relationship between GDP, energy mix and GHG emissions have been undertaken. After examining the trends, projections have been made for 2020.The analysis indicates that the energy and carbon intensity of primary commercial energy declined over the period. The Divisia decomposition analysis indicates that there is a positive contribution of the energy mix effect and income effect on per capita emissions. The correlation and regression analysis also indicate that there exists a significant relationship between per capita GDP and per capita emissions. The projections indicate that if the trends from 2000 onwards were to continue, India would achieve its commitment of GHG emission intensity reduction target on a business as usual scenario provided GDP growth can be being maintained at 7 % or more. However, in an attempt to rein the current primary commercial energy consumption growth trends, without compromising the aim of growth with equity while concurrently addressing concerns relating to energy security, climate change and adaptation, India has committed itself to the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The dissertation analyses India s mitigation efforts including those through the carbon credit mechanism. The feasibility of increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix, it being central to climate change mitigation efforts, was also examined. Clearly, the choices for the medium term narrow down to nuclear and hydro alongside renewables for generating carbon free energy.